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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Sep 23 2013

The Tapering of Traction

Some key economic data have been apparently growing stronger of late, with the Institute for Supply Management surveys indicating greater optimism and the number of new claims for unemployment insurance continuing to trend down. Despite this good news, however, the Fed surprised financial markets by announcing that tapering may possibly begin only later this year. Does this mean that the U.S. economy is not yet strong enough to weather an easing of the Fed’s accommodation?

In this context, ECRI has just completed an in-depth study analyzing U.S. growth, employment and inflation, and what the Fed’s latest shift means for their prospects going forward. The study also presents the outlook for both the residential and non-residential construction sectors, which have been providing crucial economic support.

Related News & Events

Price Pressures Ease Further

Wall Street Journal September 6, 2013

Price pressures remain muted, according to a report released Friday by the Economic Cycle Research Institute. More

 

BBC Interview on Jobs

BBC September 6, 2013

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talks with the BBC to put today's jobs report in the context of larger trends. More

 

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