A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

All Reports

Jul 31 2013

Taming Brazilian Inflation at the Cost of Growth

ECRI has just updated its Brazilian Long Leading Index (BRLLI). The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.

With Brazilian inflation above-target in June, the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) raised its key interest rate this month, marking its third increase this year. This latest rate cut comes on the heels of the BCB revising down its 2013 GDP forecast below that of last year’s disappointing pace, indicating that growth is a secondary concern for the BCB.

ECRI’s latest update to the BRLLI provides insight into the trajectory of Brazilian economic growth, indicating whether the BCB’s policy may risk an outright recession.

Related News & Events

Bloomberg Interview on Becoming Japan

Bloomberg July 30, 2013

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg TV this morning to discuss our recession call, and how the U.S. economy is now resembling Japan's "lost decades." More


Becoming Japan (Part 1)

ECRI July 30, 2013

Japan's lost decades showed faster GDP growth than in the U.S. and other major economies in the last five years. More


U.S. Economy Looking More Japanese

Wall Street Journal July 30, 2013

"Basically the U.S. is already becoming like Japan during the lost decades," says ECRI director, Lakshman Achuthan. More