A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Oct 11 2012

Taiwan Export Prospects

In August, Taiwan’s official GDP forecast for 2012 was revised down for the eighth time this year. Since exports account for around 75% of Taiwanese GDP it is helpful to understand the cyclical risks to Taiwanese export growth.

In this context, ECRI’s Taiwanese Leading Exports Index (TWLExI), which anticipates cyclical turning points in Taiwanese exports, plays an important role. The growth rate of the TWLExI has a consistent long lead over turning points in Taiwanese export growth. Consequently, it already provides a much clearer prediction for what is in store for Taiwanese export growth as well as economic growth than traditional economic indicators.

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The 2012 Recession: Are We There Yet?

ECRI September 13, 2012

Nine months ago we knew that, sitting here today, most people probably would not realize that we are in recession – and we do believe we are in recession. More