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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Oct 01 2013

Taiwan Cuts Exports Forecast

ECRI has just updated its Taiwanese Long Leading Index (TWLLI). The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.

The Taiwanese statistical bureau recently cut its 2013 forecasts for exports and GDP growth. The bureau’s dimmed outlook notwithstanding, exports, which account for three-quarters of GDP, grew for the fourth straight month in August. Still, citing modest growth, the Taiwanese central bank has left its benchmark rate unchanged.

ECRI’s latest update to the TWLLI provides insight into the trajectory of Taiwanese economic growth, indicating if Taiwan, despite recent improvement in exports and accommodative monetary policy, is truly set to slow.

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Comments on Japan's Recovery

BBC September 26, 2013

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talks with the BBC about Prime Minister Abe's statement that Japan's economy is back on track. More