A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Apr 02 2013

"Surprise" Mexican Rate Cut in Context

Last month, the Mexican central bank cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2009. Yet, economic data released afterwards showed industrial production and retail sales surging while the jobless rate dropped. As a result, the consensus view is quite upbeat on the Mexican outlook.

However, with ongoing weakness in the global economy including a U.S. recession, a key question is whether the Mexican economy can sustain its economic strength. Amid these seemingly conflicting developments, the latest update to the Mexican Long Leading Index, which can spot cyclical turns in the economy before conventional methods, clarifies what risks lie ahead for the Mexican economy.


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Interview on Jobs & Recession

CNBC April 7, 2013

How the latest jobs data squares with ECRI's recession call. More


Nominal GDP Growth Falls Again

ECRI April 26, 2013

Yoy nominal GDP growth at or below 3.7% has been seen only in recessionary contexts. In Q1/2013, it slipped to 3.4% from 3.5% in Q4/2012. More