A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jan 23 2014

Spanish Economic Growth Prospects

ECRI has just updated its Spanish Long Leading Index (ESLLI). The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.

In May of 2013, with Spanish GDP growth still negative, ECRI made an accurate forecast of a growth rate cycle upturn for the Spanish economy, followed in short order by a business cycle upturn call. Then, following nine successive quarters of decline, Spain finally recorded positive GDP growth in the third quarter of 2013. In hindsight, most economists now feel that the acute phase of Spain’s economic crisis has passed and Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy recently stated,"…2014 will be the year of the start of the economic recovery in our country." Given the recent GDP growth upturn and consensus optimism, will Spain continue to see its economy grow?

ECRI’s latest update to the ESLLI provides insight into the trajectory of the Spanish economy in the coming quarters, indicating whether the Spanish recovery is sustainable.

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