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Nov 21 2013

Secular Stagnation, aka the Yo-Yo Years, vs. Fed Policy

Despite an extended period of economic weakness, the consensus is still looking for a sustained pickup in U.S. growth. Thus, the latest headline GDP and jobs data bolstered hopes that a strong U.S. recovery might be around the corner.

Our recent analysis examines whether the GDP and jobs data provide grounds for such optimism. Looking forward, we also review the updated trajectories of our array of leading indexes for the U.S. economy, and its major economic sectors. Finally, we examine the policy tactic of “pulling forward” demand in the context of a secular decline in growth which we first identified over five years ago, before Lehman blew up.

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Fed Policy & the Business Cycle

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Major Central Bank Actions in Line with ECRI

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Becoming Japan (Part 2)

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