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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Nov 21 2013

Secular Stagnation, aka the Yo-Yo Years, vs. Fed Policy

Despite an extended period of economic weakness, the consensus is still looking for a sustained pickup in U.S. growth. Thus, the latest headline GDP and jobs data bolstered hopes that a strong U.S. recovery might be around the corner.

Our recent analysis examines whether the GDP and jobs data provide grounds for such optimism. Looking forward, we also review the updated trajectories of our array of leading indexes for the U.S. economy, and its major economic sectors. Finally, we examine the policy tactic of “pulling forward” demand in the context of a secular decline in growth which we first identified over five years ago, before Lehman blew up.

Related News & Events

Fed Policy & the Business Cycle

BNN Bloomberg November 14, 2013

ECRI talks with BNN about global central bank policy targets and the business cycle. More

 

Major Central Bank Actions in Line with ECRI

Bloomberg November 4, 2013

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg TV this morning to discuss central bank actions. More

 

Becoming Japan (Part 2)

ECRI November 4, 2013

Inflation has already turned lower in the U.S. and the Eurozone than in Japan. More