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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Aug 20 2013

Fairytale of Second-Half Rebound Redux

With the unemployment rate at 7.4% and jobless claims declining, there is widespread anticipation of a second-half rebound in economic growth. Indeed, the alleged improvement in labor market conditions has led the consensus to argue that U.S. consumers will come to the economy’s rescue, in tandem with continued wealth-effect support from equity and home prices.

But, are labor market conditions really improving? ECRI has just completed a study of employment including a cyclical analysis of key drivers of job market conditions. The study clarifies whether headline jobs growth will help the economy strengthen, or whether jobs data optimism is illusory.

 

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Becoming Japan (Part 1)

ECRI July 30, 2013

Japan’s lost decades showed faster GDP growth than in the U.S. and other major economies in the last five years. More