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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Mar 31 2014

Russia Gets Its “Yo-Yo-Years”

In July 2012, ECRI correctly forecast a slowdown in Russian industrial growth, which has contributed to its cyclical weakness ever since. More recently, the Russian economy has been thrust into turmoil due to the ramifications of its moves to annex Crimea. Russian stock prices have swung widely and the ruble has also vacillated, as the uncertainty around the Russian economy persists.

In this context, we re-examined our cyclical outlook for Russia, highlighting structural and cyclical points of view for economic growth, exports and stock market volatility. Moreover, in light of the notion that sanctions will push Russia into recession, our analysis offers clear views of the cyclical drivers in play, including its exposure to the Yo-Yo-Years, long before the current crisis.

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Price Signals of Global Slack

ECRI March 14, 2014

World trade price growth has seen almost continuous deflation since early 2012, and its renewed weakness suggests even more slack in the global economy. More