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Mar 20 2014

Running on Empty

At the turn of the New Year we disagreed with the consensus and made the point that U.S. economic growth was not about to take off. Since then, most economic data has disappointed expectations, with harsh winter weather serving as the excuse. Indeed, many economists still see growth picking up soon and the economy attaining “escape velocity” in short order. Are their optimistic expectations warranted?

In this context, ECRI has just completed an analysis of the cyclical outlook for the U.S. economy, examining our objective leading and coincident indexes, with a particular focus on retail sales, housing and overall inflation. While the consensus continues to brush off the recent disappointing data, the analysis reveals risks that may otherwise be overlooked. 

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Failure to Launch

ECRI February 8, 2014

As ECRI had predicted, the recent consensus that the economy was "taking off" has turned out to be dead wrong, with U.S. growth falling sharply of late. More


Price Signals of Global Slack

ECRI March 14, 2014

World trade price growth has seen almost continuous deflation since early 2012, and its renewed weakness suggests even more slack in the global economy. More