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Aug 22 2013

Revisions Reveal Recessions

The recent U.S. GDP release featured significant revisions, with extensive conceptual changes enacted back to 1929. What do these revisions tell us about the current state of the U.S. economy?

Revisiting ECRI’s earlier finding that GDP data for almost all the early quarters of recent recessions have been revised down dramatically, our latest research looks beyond the current GDP print to better understand when the lion’s share of revisions occurs in the context of recession. It also provides an analogous study of GDI revisions, definitively answering whether GDI or GDP is a better real-time indicator. With both GDP and GDI likely to undergo further revisions in the months – and years – ahead, this report reveals why recession and recovery dates are historically recognized only long after the fact.

Related News & Events

Becoming Japan: Update

ECRI December 11, 2013

The ECB rate cut was spurred by a “surprise” drop in Eurozone inflation in Oct. But, U.S. inflation was even lower then, and the Fed’s key inflation measure fell further below its 2% target. More