A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI uses a highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to understand the complex dynamics of the global economy.
To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.
The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating well over 100 proprietary indexes designed to be comparable across borders.

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Revisions Reveal Recessions

The recent U.S. GDP release featured significant revisions, with extensive conceptual changes enacted back to 1929. What do these revisions tell us about the current state of the U.S. economy?

Revisiting ECRI’s earlier finding that GDP data for almost all the early quarters of recent recessions have been revised down dramatically, our latest research looks beyond the current GDP print to better understand when the lion’s share of revisions occurs in the context of recession. It also provides an analogous study of GDI revisions, definitively answering whether GDI or GDP is a better real-time indicator. With both GDP and GDI likely to undergo further revisions in the months – and years – ahead, this report reveals why recession and recovery dates are historically recognized only long after the fact.

Full Report: August 19, 2013: U.S. Cyclical Outlook

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Revisions Reveal Recessions

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