Some recently released economic data has been better than the consensus had expected including the drop in the jobless rate in September. Meanwhile, the housing market has been showing signs of improvement, while equity markets have been rising and consumer confidence has spiked. All of this positive news is fueling hope that stronger consumer spending will help to power economic growth in coming months.

In light of these developments, ECRI has just completed an in-depth study, analyzing cyclical linkages of stock prices, housing activity and confidence around business cycle recessions. Its conclusions not only reveal whether this optimism will continue, but clearly assess whether a U.S. recession can be averted.