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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jul 23 2012

Likely Start Date of U.S. Recession

Just a couple of months ago, the prevailing consensus was that the U.S. economy would forge ahead despite Europe’s woes. More recently, many economists have begun to change their forecast, adopting a more pessimistic view of the economy.

ECRI’s co-founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, developed the first-ever leading indicators of recession and recovery more than six decades ago based on the key drivers of the business cycle. These original leading indicators have correctly predicted recessions and recoveries through the early 21st century, including the Great Recession, despite all the structural changes the economy has witnessed.  

Amid conflicting economic releases ECRI’s latest analysis spanning more than a hundred years clarifies the confusion, shedding light on the cyclical direction of the U.S. economy.

Related News & Events

Recession Here

Bloomberg July 10, 2012

It takes time to realize that a recession has already begun. More

 

Cold Facts Are Getting in Investors’ Way

New York Times July 15, 2012

“...sometime at the end of the year or early next year the data will be revised and we’ll start to get some clarity about when the recession actually started.” More