A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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May 09 2013

Questions about Australian Home Price Prospects

A year ago, Australian home prices were in a clear cyclical downturn, and the growth rate of Australian real home prices was deep in negative territory. At the time, we predicted on the basis of the growth rate of our Australian Leading Home Price Index (AULHPI) that Australian home price growth was about to turn up, and home price growth did strengthen shortly after.

In April, home prices fell, raising a question about the durability of the upturn, and if the risk of a new cyclical downturn in Australian home prices was now rising. In this context, the AULHPI again provides valuable insights about the cyclical direction of Australian home prices in the months ahead.

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ECRI May 31, 2013

The latest drop in consumer spending is consistent with the recessionary plunge in yoy U.S. import growth into negative territory. More