A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Apr 09 2013

Negative Real Yields and Business Productivity

There has been a lot of debate about recent data releases, showing both “positive” and “negative” indications for the economy. Taking a step back, however, a measure of business productivity growth already reached negative territory in the third quarter of last year as real yields slipped into negative territory. What does this tell us about the economy?

ECRI’s latest report examines how business productivity growth relates to real yields, providing key insight into whether businesses will face further headwinds in the months ahead.

Related News & Events

Interview on Jobs & Recession

CNBC April 7, 2013

How the latest jobs data squares with ECRI's recession call. More


Nominal GDP Growth Falls Again

ECRI April 26, 2013

Yoy nominal GDP growth at or below 3.7% has been seen only in recessionary contexts. In Q1/2013, it slipped to 3.4% from 3.5% in Q4/2012. More