A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jun 13 2013

Mixed Signals for Spanish Economy

ECRI has updated its Spanish Long Leading Index (ESLLI). The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.

Spain continues to be mired in recession, with GDP shrinking for seven consecutive quarters and unemployment at a record 26.6%. However, the latest Spanish purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing popped up to a two-year high, providing a glimmer of hope that the Spanish economy could be reaching a turning point.

ECRI’s latest update to the ESLLI provides reconciles these mixed signals, providing an unambiguous guide to what lies ahead for the Spanish economy.