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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Dec 30 2013

Liquid Courage

After five years without catastrophe, consensus expectations for economic growth in 2014 are optimistic, particularly for the major economies. With such a sanguine backdrop, one foregone conclusion in the mainstream is likely to be a continued decline in monetary stimulus after a “mission accomplished.” This would also imply that inflation and unemployment are generally under control around the world.

ECRI’s latest report outlines the actual picture for inflation and unemployment in the context of differing central bank analytical frameworks for predicting inflation, revealing which economies are still mired in liquidity traps.

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Becoming Japan: Update

ECRI December 11, 2013

The ECB rate cut was spurred by a “surprise” drop in Eurozone inflation in Oct. But, U.S. inflation was even lower then, and the Fed’s key inflation measure fell further below its 2% target. More

 

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