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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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May 02 2013

Latest Canadian GDP Figures Defy Carney

ECRI has just updated its Canadian Long Leading Index (CALLI). The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.

The consensus was cheered by the latest output data, stoking expectations of first quarter GDP growth above 2%, a rate that would be the economy’s strongest showing since 2011. However, this data comes just weeks after Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney cut his first quarter growth estimate to 1.5% from 2.3%.

ECRI’s latest update to the CALLI provides insight into whether the Canadian economy is set to return to a period of stronger growth, or if the latest figures offer little more than false hope.

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What Wealth Effect?

ECRI May 31, 2013

The latest drop in consumer spending is consistent with the recessionary plunge in yoy U.S. import growth into negative territory. More