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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Oct 03 2013

Korean Inflation at 14-Year Low Amid Stronger Spending and Investment

ECRI has just updated its Korean Future Inflation Gauge (KOFIG). The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Korean inflation.

In September, Korean consumer prices rose at their slowest pace in 14 years, despite positive signs for spending and a budget proposal calling for government expenditures to increase 4.6%. Meanwhile, foreign demand for Korean currency has risen of late, with foreigners’ net purchases of Korean stocks growing in each of the past three months, jumping to $7.1 billion in September alone.

The latest update to the KOFIG clarifies the future trajectory of Korean inflation, indicating whether Korean inflation will fall further or soon turn up.

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BBC September 26, 2013

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talks with the BBC about Prime Minister Abe's statement that Japan's economy is back on track. More