A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Feb 11 2015

Korean Consumer Spending Prospects

In the context of an unfavorable export environment, due to a relatively strong Korean won and stagnant global growth, many are looking to the consumer to drive Korean economic growth. Unfortunately, over the past year, Korean household spending growth has been weaker than many expected, falling to a seven-quarter low in Q4 2014.

In this context, we present the relationship between the growth rate of ECRI’s Korean Long Leading Index (KOLLI) and household spending growth. Since KOLLI growth typically anticipates cyclical turning points in such spending growth, it already provides insights regarding the likelihood of a pickup in consumer spending growth.

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A Bit of a Surprise?

ECRI January 13, 2015

One of 2014's biggest surprises – falling oil prices – is completely consistent with our timely call on global growth. When made last July, that forecast was opposed to the consensus view. More