A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Feb 04 2014

Japanese Industrial Prospects

While month-to-month Japanese industrial production growth returned to positive territory in December, it again missed consensus expectations. Moreover, with its year-over-year growth rate ticking down to a two-month low following five months of increases, it raises the question whether Japanese industrial production growth is running out of steam.

In this context, it is important to review the latest movements in the growth rate of ECRI’s Japanese Leading Manufacturing Index (JALMI), which anticipates cyclical turning points in Japanese industrial growth. The JALMI growth rate predicted the earlier cyclical upturn in industrial growth that started in early 2013 and its current reading bears watching.

Related News & Events

Job Growth Not Trending Higher

ECRI January 14, 2014

Even ignoring December data, the household survey, which sees far smaller revisions, counts a million fewer jobs created over the prior 12 months than the establishment survey. More


Secular Stagnation

Fox Business News January 22, 2014

GDP growth (yoy) has been less than 2% for four straight quarters, something we've never seen except during or right after a recession. More