A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

All Reports

Mar 17 2014

Japanese Cyclical Outlook

ECRI has just updated its Japanese Long Leading Index (JALLI). The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.

The Japanese economy grew less than widely expected at the end of last year, with economic growth figures revised downward, missing forecasts of higher spending ahead of the sales tax increase set to take effect in April. Additionally, Japan's current account deficit widened to $15 billion in January, the largest on record. So, what lies ahead for the Japanese economic cycle given the recent disappointing data and looming tax hike?

ECRI’s latest update to the JALLI provides insight into the trajectory of the Japanese economy in the coming months, indicating whether the recent data is indicative of worsening growth prospects.

Related News & Events

Price Signals of Global Slack

ECRI March 14, 2014

World trade price growth has seen almost continuous deflation since early 2012, and its renewed weakness suggests even more slack in the global economy. More


Failure to Launch

ECRI February 8, 2014

As ECRI had predicted, the recent consensus that the economy was "taking off" has turned out to be dead wrong, with U.S. growth falling sharply of late. More