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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Oct 31 2013

Japan: Abenomics vs. Cyclical Drivers

Japan has clearly exited from recession and deflation with GDP recovering to near the level seen before the Global Financial Crisis, and consumer prices inflation notching positive growth for four consecutive months. The recovery is popularly credited to Abenomics, but many don’t know that an upturn in fundamental cyclical drivers preceded Abenomics, playing a primary role in the revival. Indeed, ECRI’s Japanese Future Inflation Gauge had risen since the spring of 2012 and Japanese Long Leading Index growth had improved since late last year, before Abenomics appeared on the horizon.

While many believe that Abenomics will “keep working,” the key question is whether the current recovery can be sustained. In this context, ECRI has completed an in-depth analysis of the Japanese economy, assessing key drivers of cyclical growth as well as longer-term structural changes in the economy. This analysis reveals critical information about where the Japanese economy is heading.

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Fed Policy & the Business Cycle

BNN Bloomberg November 14, 2013

ECRI talks with BNN about global central bank policy targets and the business cycle. More

 

Major Central Bank Actions in Line with ECRI

Bloomberg November 4, 2013

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg TV this morning to discuss central bank actions. More