A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Apr 15 2013

Is Sentiment Signaling an Upturn in Eurozone Growth?

There has been much debate recently about Eurozone economic prospects. Some posit that Eurozone growth is picking up, while others are more pessimistic, pointing to continued weakness in indicators like retail sales and unemployment. Despite these downbeat data points, one measure of regional sentiment remains in an upturn, leading some to trumpet it as a sign of an impending upturn in Eurozone economic growth.

ECRI’s latest report assesses whether the strength in this well-known indicator is a true portent of an economic turnaround, or whether it is merely cold comfort to the battered euro-area economy.

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Interview on Jobs & Recession

CNBC April 7, 2013

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Nominal GDP Growth Falls Again

ECRI April 26, 2013

Yoy nominal GDP growth at or below 3.7% has been seen only in recessionary contexts. In Q1/2013, it slipped to 3.4% from 3.5% in Q4/2012. More