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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Apr 25 2013

Is Home Price Growth Losing Momentum?

Last April ECRI’s U.S. Leading Home Price Index (USLHPI) strongly suggested that U.S. real home price growth would turn up. Indeed real home price growth has risen substantially since then and the new-found housing market strength was seen by many as proof that the economic recovery was intact and set to accelerate. However, last month we highlighted that USLHPI growth had turned down in the prior months and that it would be important to monitor its near-term performance.

With many economic indicators disappointing this month, monitoring the USLHPI has become even more critical because any change in the housing price outlook could rattle consensus perceptions about the stability of the overall economy.

Related News & Events

Why Recovery Plan Has Faltered

International Business Times April 13, 2013

“We are not seeing signs of an imminent growth upturn that so many claim to see,” [ECRI] concludes." More

 

Nominal GDP Growth Falls Again

ECRI April 26, 2013

Yoy nominal GDP growth at or below 3.7% has been seen only in recessionary contexts. In Q1/2013, it slipped to 3.4% from 3.5% in Q4/2012. More