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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Apr 29 2013

Is Abenomics Too Little, Too Much, or Just Right?

The Bank of Japan has recently doubled down on monetary accommodation – in the form of both quantitative and qualitative easing. Given that Japanese monetary policy has long proven itself to be behind the curve, is Japan’s central bank getting it right this time?

ECRI’s latest updates to its separate leading indexes for Japanese inflation and economic growth show them to be in clear trajectories – indicating whether policymakers are instituting changes that will harm, or help, prospects for economic growth and deflation or inflation in the months ahead.

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Nominal GDP Growth Falls Again

ECRI April 26, 2013

Yoy nominal GDP growth at or below 3.7% has been seen only in recessionary contexts. In Q1/2013, it slipped to 3.4% from 3.5% in Q4/2012. More