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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jul 16 2014

Japanese Capital Investment Prospects

Japan’s GDP grew more in the first quarter than previously thought on stronger investment growth. This probably raised the Bank of Japan’s confidence that, following the April sales tax hike, which likely crimped consumption spending, GDP growth will remain firm as investment growth compensates for the drop off in consumer spending growth.

In search of evidence to support or contradict this scenario, we examine the recent growth rate of ECRI’s Japanese Long Leading Index, which anticipates cyclical turns in Japanese investment growth, thereby clarifying the near-term outlook.

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Cognitive Dissonance at the Fed?

ECRI May 30, 2014

As Fed and CBO trend growth estimates fall to the Fed’s 2% recessionary stall speed, how does economy reach escape velocity? More

 

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