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Sep 02 2020

An Earlier Warning System

A plethora of high frequency data has come to the fore in the context of the Covid crisis. Unfortunately, these indicators are almost entirely coincident in nature, offering little insight into the future. Consequently – bereft of tools to foresee where the economy is headed – many have settled into the view that the only things that matter are updates on the pandemic and central bank action.

But the cycle is quite active, and cyclical growth prospects continue to shift across the major economies. This is evident not only from ECRI’s traditional leading indexes, but also from our more promptly available leading indexes that are already updated through August.

Included in this report:

- G7 outlook sharing ECRI's G7 “Quick” Leading and Coincident Indexes

- Chinese outlook informed by the Chinese “Quick” Leading Index

- What's next based on ECRI's full suite of leading indexes

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