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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jul 18 2019

Updated Industrial, Consumer, and Inflation Outlooks

Revival hopes have again taken hold, based on the perception of a strong jobs market underpinning consumer spending and inflation. But, is this backed up by the data?

This report includes:

- Updates to ECRI's full array of leading indexes for the U.S. economy

- Analysis of the industrial sector, with a look at ECRI's U.S. Leading and Coincident Manufacturing Indexes

- An update to our consumer spending outlook, including the U.S. Leading Index of Consumer Spending

- Analysis of the recent uptick in core inflation measures, in the context of ECRI's updated inflation outlook

- Discussion of monetary policy implications

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Related News & Events

Interview: CSX Earnings and Productivity

Yahoo July 17, 2019

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Yahoo Finance to discuss latest U.S. economic news topics. More

 

Earning Growth Outlook Plunges

CNBC July 11, 2019

Earnings growth is highly sensitive to cycles in economic growth, so every cyclical slowdown sees a plunge in earnings growth. More

 

Great Headlines Mislead On Jobs

ECRI July 5, 2019

The headlines paint an overly rosy picture of the state of the labor market, after having exaggerated last year’s job growth. More

 

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