Contact

A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

All Reports

 
Oct 31 2013

Inflation Outlook Likely to Influence ECB Rate Cut Decision

ECRI has just updated its Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge (EZFIG). The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Eurozone inflation.

Eurozone inflation grew at just 0.7% in October, its slowest pace in nearly four years. With inflation well below the ECB’s target of 2% and the unemployment rate at a record high, expectations of an ECB benchmark rate cut are increasing – an issue that has divided the bank’s governing council for months.

The latest update to the EZFIG clarifies the future trajectory of Eurozone inflation, indicating whether inflation will continue to slow in the coming months, further compelling the ECB to cut rates.

Related News & Events

Major Central Bank Actions in Line with ECRI

Bloomberg November 4, 2013

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg TV this morning to discuss central bank actions. More

 

Fed Policy & the Business Cycle

BNN November 14, 2013

ECRI talks with BNN about global central bank policy targets and the business cycle. More