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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Aug 20 2012

Has the U.S. Economy Turned the Corner?

With recent U.S. economic data showing better-than-expected readings, the markets and consensus are increasingly upbeat about the economic outlook, including a belief that the U.S. economy has dodged a recession. A number of key coincident data, in particular July’s payroll job gains, are used to make this case.

However, is this view warranted? ECRI’s latest analysis of the U.S. cyclical outlook, based on an objective process that distinguishes between cyclical swings and noise, clarifies whether this optimism can be sustained.

Related News & Events

ECRI WLI Ticks Up

Reuters August 17, 2012

A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week. More