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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Sep 03 2013

Has France Exited Recession?

ECRI has just updated its French Long Leading Index (FRLLI). The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.

With French GDP expanding at 0.5% in the second quarter after two back-to-back quarters of negative growth, the Finance Minister announced the “end of the recession” last month. Despite this pronouncement, efforts to trim the nation’s budget deficit are creating enough drag on the so-called recovery that the IMF urged the French government to slow its deficit reduction in order to sustain its recent growth.

ECRI’s latest update to the FRLLI provides insight into the trajectory of French economic growth, indicating whether France has truly exited recession.