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Great Expectations
Capturing the giddiness among the great and the good in Davos, Kenneth Rogoff observed last week, “People are euphoric here, they think everything is going to be fantastic.” That might be the view of the movers and shakers gathered on a mountaintop to discuss economic inequality – effectively the main topic on the agenda – but it is not a perspective we share.
Our latest study includes a review of international productivity and labor market trends that is not particularly promising. It also fits with the low trend growth characteristic of “the yo-yo years” that ECRI has discussed since before Lehman.
Cyclical volatility, combined with low trend growth, is what virtually dictates more frequent recessions. In 222 years since the late 18th century, the U.S. experienced 47 recessions. Following the Great Recession, however, policymakers have been making an all-out push to eliminate recessions altogether, in part by trying to suppress financial market volatility. The 48th recession is likely to be recognized before they are ready to face the futility of attempts to eliminate business cycles in market economies.