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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Mar 01 2013

Global Economy Turning a Corner?

Since 2007, the world’s central banks have flooded the financial system with trillions of dollars in liquidity to combat weaker-than-expected growth and to avert deflation. Repeated stimulus has allayed some observers’ fears, particularly through boosted market prices. But has the Fed started to succeed in its aforementioned goals, or are we already in the midst of a global recession?

ECRI’s latest report clearly outlines whether leading indicators are seeing a global recession, or gathering strength. The report also reveals paradoxical international inflation pressures that will almost certainly challenge policymakers in the months to come.

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Recession in the Yo-Yo Years

ECRI March 8, 2013

Year-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to an 18-month low, and household job growth has dropped to a 16-month low. See images and notes on the state of the business cycle. More