A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jul 27 2012

The Global Economy: Seeing the Forest for the Trees

When trying to assess the macro state of the global economy, most know it is difficult to see the forest for the trees, particularly with so much information buffeting opinion one way or another. The consensus is prone to use the  “freshest” data points, bit by bit, to form a broader picture of the global economy. This is often done without an overarching framework to make sense of seemingly contradictory data. Not only can this approach be frustratingly misleading, but the growing web of international connectivity heightens the danger of such a narrow focus that risks missing the big shifts in the growth picture.

This is where the advantages of ECRI’s approach become paramount. Using pioneering research on international systems of cyclical economic indicators designed to be compared across borders, our latest study utilizes this rare world-view to reveal the true aggregate picture that has clearly emerged for the global economic outlook.

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Reuters July 27, 2012

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week. More