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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Oct 09 2012

German Export Growth Prospects

Since the spring of 2010, German export growth has been in a cyclical downswing, which is a discouraging trend for an economy where exports have equaled about 50% of GDP in recent years. Therefore, many were pleasantly surprised by the recent uptick in year-over-year German export growth.

ECRI’s latest analysis clarifies the likely trajectory of German export growth, indicating whether the recent uptick is a sign of a nascent upturn, or amounts to little more than noise amidst an ongoing downturn.

Related News & Events

U.K. Future Inflation Gauge Subdued

ECRI October 5, 2012

While ticking up in August, the UKFIG stayed near June’s 35-month low. Thus, U.K. inflation pressures are still subdued. More

 

The 2012 Recession: Are We There Yet?

ECRI September 13, 2012

Nine months ago we knew that, sitting here today, most people probably would not realize that we are in recession – and we do believe we are in recession. More