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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Dec 24 2013

German Confidence Measures and the Cyclical Outlook

ECRI has recently updated its broad-based German Long Leading Index (GELLI). The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.

With the German Ifo Business Climate Index improving to a 20-month high in December, analysts are convinced a Germany recovery remains on track. While German managers are more optimistic and the Bundesbank says the nation’s economy remains on a “solid growth path,” Europe’s largest economy only grew at 0.3 percent from July to September, significantly slower than the 0.7 percent seen in the preceding quarter.

ECRI’s latest update to the GELLI provides insight into the future trajectory of overall German economic growth, indicating whether the German economy is gaining momentum or not.

Related News & Events

Becoming Japan: Update

ECRI December 11, 2013

The ECB rate cut was spurred by a “surprise” drop in Eurozone inflation in Oct. But, U.S. inflation was even lower then, and the Fed’s key inflation measure fell further below its 2% target. More