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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Apr 09 2014

The French Cyclical Outlook

Is recent data suggesting that a recovery is taking hold in the Eurozone's second-biggest economy? ECRI has just updated its French Long Leading Index (FRLLI), which provides the answer. The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.

France's manufacturing sector returned to growth last month even more strongly than expected, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 52.1, its highest level since June 2011. Additionally, French GDP rose 0.3% in the final quarter of last year.

ECRI’s latest update to the FRLLI provides insight into the trajectory of the French economy in the coming months, indicating whether improving growth prospects are for real.

Related News & Events

Eurozone inflation pressures muted

Reuters April 4, 2014

Inflationary pressures remain muted in the eurozone, doing little to allay fears about deflation in the 18-nation bloc, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed. More