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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Mar 25 2013

Examining the Wealth Effect and the Housing Recovery

With the “wealth effect” taking center stage in recent weeks, there are hopes that a strengthening stock market and rising home prices will translate directly into an economic recovery. The headline retail sales figure and jobs number for February both came in better than the consensus expected, but the underlying numbers may provide reason for concern.

In this context, ECRI has just completed an analysis of the U.S. home price growth prospects and its effects on the consumer, as well as an in-depth look at the U.S. employment outlook, determining if the so-called economic recovery stands up to scrutiny.

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Stock Prices and Recessions

CBS March 18, 2013

When people say that we cannot be in recession now because stock prices are rising, it is important to know that we have seen this movie before. More

 

Upcoming TV Interview

CNBC April 7, 2013

On Sunday April 7 Lakshman Achuthan joins "On the Money" with Maria Bartiromo to discuss the cyclical outlook in the context of recent economic data. The interview will air at 11:30 AM (ET) on WNBC and also at 7:30 PM (ET) on CNBC.