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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jul 05 2013

Eurozone Demand for German Exports

ECRI has just updated its German Leading Eurozone Exports Index (GELEZExI). The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in German exports to the Eurozone.

In the last quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of this year, German exports declined, falling in consecutive quarters for the first time since mid-2009. Per the Bundesbank’s June report, much of this drop was due to weakness in the Eurozone, the destination for nearly 40% of German exports. Amid the ongoing slowdown in the euro area, the Bundesbank does not foresee exports to the Eurozone reviving before 2014 at the earliest.

ECRI’s latest analysis examines the growth outlook of German exports to the Eurozone, providing insight into whether such a recovery may occur sooner than the Bundesbank expects.

Related News & Events

Euro zone inflation pressures hold at 39-month low

Reuters July 5, 2013

"Euro zone inflation will remain in a downswing in the months ahead," said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI's chief operations officer. More