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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jul 01 2015

With Inflation Easing in Germany and Eurozone, Should ECB Worry?

In the midst of developments in Greece, the latest disappointing German inflation data is an unwelcome additional concern. The slippage in German inflation to just 0.1% year-over-year in June has sparked fears that weak inflation will continue to plague the Eurozone. Indeed, it is already weighing on overall Eurozone inflation, which ticked down after rising for four months, raising questions about the effectiveness of the current quantitative easing program of the European Central Bank (ECB).

ECRI’s latest update to its forward-looking German Future Inflation Gauge provides valuable insight into whether or not these fears are warranted, and how the ECB may be influenced by incoming price data.

Related News & Events

Low Trend Growth, Productivity Hopes, and the Outlook

Bloomberg July 1, 2015

How long-term growth trends in productivity and hours worked help explain the long-term decline in trend growth ECRI first identified in 2008, pre-Lehman. More

 

Why the Recent Rise in Wage Inflation May Not be Good

ECRI July 1, 2015

In today's Bloomberg TV interview, ECRI's Achuthan discussed why growth in average hourly earnings data is not the "hopeful sign" for wage earners that it's cracked up to be. More