A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Dec 04 2014

Will RBA Cut Rates After A Year of No Change?

Earlier this week, as widely expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held interest rates at a record low of 2.5% in an effort to spur the struggling economy. This means 2014 was the first full calendar year in ten years in which the RBA did not change its rates. Moreover, Australian CPI growth fell to a nine-quarter low in Q3 2014, leaving the consensus to wonder if rates will soon be cut to a new record low.

Since this depends on the trajectory of inflation in the months ahead, ECRI’s Australian Future Inflation Gauge (AUFIG), which is designed to anticipate cyclical turning points in Australian inflation, can provide important early insights.

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Interview on Global Slowdown & Japan's Recession

Al Jazeera November 19, 2014

Monitoring the U.S. Weekly Leading Index in context of Global Slowdown. More