A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Apr 27 2015

Will Exports Provide a Boost to the French Economy?

While the French finance ministry decreased its economic growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017 and kept its 2015 forecast at 1%, export growth has improved recently, rising to a three-year high in its latest reading.
With exports accounting for more than a quarter of GDP, it is important to determine whether export growth will continue to strengthen, and if so, provide a welcome boost to the overall economy. For this reason, we examine ECRI’s French Leading Exports Index, which anticipates cyclical swings in French real export growth, and provides a definitive trajectory for export growth in the coming months.

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ECRI April 23, 2015

A record plunge in oil price volatility played a key role in moderating economic cycle volatility in the 2011-13 period. More