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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jun 25 2014

Will Benign Inflation Persist?

Belatedly, the consensus has recognized the structural “lowflation” underway in most developed economies, including the U.S. – which we have been warning of for some time in the context of “the yo-yo years.” The now-keen awareness of this phenomenon, along with the Fed’s assurances that rates will be kept low, may be partly responsible for the tame behavior of inflation expectations, which have been virtually flat for months.

ECRI’s latest study investigates the U.S. inflation outlook, assessing whether the consensus expectation of sustained low inflation is realistic, or whether a cyclical upswing in inflation is likely to take both the consensus and policymakers by surprise.

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Cognitive Dissonance at the Fed?

ECRI May 30, 2014

As Fed and CBO trend growth estimates fall to the Fed’s 2% recessionary stall speed, how does economy reach escape velocity? More