A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

All Reports

Apr 02 2015

Where Have the Gasoline Savings Gone?

Consumer spending has disappointed in recent months. With consumers benefiting from lower gasoline prices and a stronger labor market, their apparent reluctance to boost spending has increasingly baffled economists.

With consensus estimates holding on to hopes for 3.1% GDP growth this year, explanations for the disappointment have been many and varied. Some blame the harsh winter, while others point to the rise in the personal savings rate as evidence of a cautious consumer. What is clear, however, is that with consumer spending accounting for over two-thirds of U.S. GDP, the outlook for consumer spending is as important as ever.

In its latest research, ECRI provides valuable insight into the health of consumer spending growth, and takes a detailed look at its cyclical prospects, based on our Leading Index of Consumer Spending.

Related News & Events

US Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up

ECRI March 27, 2015

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 131.6. More


Wage Growth Falling Faster

ECRI March 6, 2015

Year-over-year nominal average earnings growth was already lackluster, despite the January boost from higher minimum wages. But, wage growth is now falling faster. More