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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Mar 13 2015

What Do Shorter Economic Cycles Mean?

Since the turn of the century, the duration of cyclical swings in economic growth has shortened dramatically. For instance, the U.S. experienced six growth rate cycles in the 14-year period from 1998 through 2012, while the previous six growth rate cycles stretched over 25-years. This shift is in keeping with our yo-yo years thesis, which suggests that developed economies are likely to experience more recessions because of lower trend growth.

ECRI has completed an examination of the shift towards shorter cycles in major developed economies and the global industrial cycle. Our analysis reveals surprising implications based on the combination of these shorter growth rate cycles with the yo-yo years.

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Detailed Interview on our Approach

Real Vision TV December 5, 2014

Discussing ECRI's research approach, with comments on the outlook, in a 69 minute interview with Real Vision TV. More