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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jan 30 2015

War by Other Means

The plunge in the prices of oil and other industrial commodities since the summer – a symptom of the cyclical downturn in global industrial growth – has been fueling deflation concerns, in the corridors of the ECB and elsewhere. The main point of these competitive devaluations has been to grab larger shares of a shrinking trade pie. This amounts to war by other means.

Meanwhile, world trade growth has essentially collapsed after rebounding from the financial crisis, despite some $11 trillion in international Quantitative Easing (QE). Will a trillion more from the ECB make a real difference?

More recently, there are tentative signals of a reversal. In this report we discuss these moves, along with critical nuances suggested by other relevant ECRI leading indexes.

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A Bit of a Surprise?

ECRI January 13, 2015

One of 2014’s biggest surprises – falling oil prices – is completely consistent with our timely call on global growth. When made last July, that forecast was opposed to the consensus view. More