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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Sep 09 2014

U.S. Home Price Prospects

Back in March 2013, ECRI correctly forecast a home price growth downturn based on the growth rate of our U.S. Leading Home Price Index (USLHPI). Only of late has this been realized by the mainstream, with year-over-year growth in the S&P/Case-Shiller national home price index falling to a 19-month low and new home sales falling for the second consecutive month. Looking ahead, has the outlook reversed course from our earlier prediction?

ECRI’s latest update to the USLHPI provides insight into the U.S. home price growth outlook, and whether housing will provide the hoped-for support to the U.S. economy.

Related News & Events

The Fear of Wages Is Dead

ECRI August 29, 2014

A keystone of current market complacency is the growing conviction that, with wage growth flagging, the Fed will not hike rates sooner or faster than expected. More

 

A House of Cards

ECRI August 18, 2014

With home price growth in a clear downturn, any wealth effect from home prices has faded. More