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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Dec 01 2014

Uneven International Growth Prospects

As we monitor international growth prospects through our array of leading indexes for 21 major economies it is clear that 2015 will be a better year for some than others.

However, even though there is growing acceptance of ECRI’s 2008 observation of a substantial slowdown in long-term secular trend growth, plenty of denial remains. In their efforts to attain “escape velocity,” central bankers are assuming that their economies have much greater potential, and require only another policy-driven boost to catch up. Still, the policy response remains a one-trick pony, where they keep trying to pull demand forward, whether through ZIRP, QE or other desperate measures. But if trend growth is so weak, what is left of the future if demand is pulled forward year after year?

Under the circumstances, discerning cyclical swings within structural stagnation, and implications for emerging markets, is a critical component of any decision making process.

Related News & Events

Interview on Global Slowdown & Japan's Recession

Al Jazeera November 19, 2014

Monitoring the U.S. Weekly Leading Index in context of Global Slowdown. More