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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Dec 14 2015

Understanding Cyclical Sensitivity for Over 100 Industries

Earlier this year, we laid out our conceptual framework that determines how cyclically sensitive key economic sectors are likely to be, and outlining the tactical and strategic advantages an organization can acquire by developing the ability to ride the business cycle. We have now determined the cyclical volatility of over a hundred specific industries.

This examination adds important nuance and depth to our understanding of the determinants of cyclical volatility. In industries with high cyclical sensitivity, the relevant leading indexes can be invaluable as part of early warning systems.

Full Report: December 9, 2015: U.S. Focus

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Interview Part 3, Reality of Inventory Build

Bloomberg December 8, 2015

Inventories have risen steadily, but sales have been falling since the summer of 2014. More

 

Interview Part 2, Oversupply Overwhelming Demand

Bloomberg December 8, 2015

Post-GFC stimulus has resulted in massive oversupply. More

 

Interview Part 1, Cyclical Slowdown

Bloomberg December 8, 2015

How to discern noise from cyclical direction. More

 

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